Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 10.997717 12.327296 13.823628 15.646660 17.827306 20.377256 23.622571
2025-03-23 9.215396 10.887738 12.920366 15.620226 19.187559 23.854615 30.628980
2025-03-30 7.939197 9.684566 11.909481 15.033949 19.448699 25.703635 35.733034
2025-04-06 6.979599 8.710814 10.995202 14.338933 19.313328 26.824227 39.916674
2025-04-13 6.284419 7.989483 10.303715 13.810300 19.262125 27.969806 44.364199
2025-04-20 6.279220 8.189033 10.885198 15.177242 22.296862 34.686088 61.091633
2025-04-27 6.022020 7.999282 10.871909 15.616527 23.889029 39.307495 75.829413
2025-05-04 5.569224 7.483097 10.314228 15.101733 23.725079 40.557231 83.512490
2025-05-11 5.376729 7.333319 10.297055 15.468738 25.205842 45.482171 103.218697
2025-05-18 5.086589 7.011686 9.977571 15.272358 25.573531 48.109381 118.185101
2025-05-25 4.832590 6.726802 9.691107 15.096945 25.946710 50.850677 135.566432
2025-06-01 4.628585 6.505498 9.488965 15.048015 26.567646 54.381258 158.882099
2025-06-08 4.352959 6.164432 9.079314 14.603787 26.349469 55.913863 176.947257
2025-06-15 4.172408 5.965527 8.896190 14.573599 27.056414 60.278531 213.848529
2025-06-22 3.926082 5.644639 8.479116 14.041555 26.519361 60.880649 232.647731
2025-06-29 3.684345 5.318782 8.032661 13.409683 25.653965 60.257867 244.246490
2025-07-06 3.484814 5.053116 7.676269 12.928300 25.087702 60.463557 262.496392
2025-07-13 3.555965 5.241503 8.138291 14.171687 29.058368 77.684249 458.214303
2025-07-20 3.499975 5.209791 8.196755 14.570332 30.939628 88.664365 663.366300
2025-07-27 3.334684 4.981229 7.874649 14.103118 30.337733 89.271590 737.409106
2025-08-03 3.281192 4.944261 7.909892 14.436265 32.098987 101.266283 1114.787731
2025-08-10 3.169103 4.798727 7.728768 14.258041 32.315326 106.284911 1420.407263
2025-08-17 3.066213 4.664917 7.562456 14.098770 32.566369 111.741848 1857.136078